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Markets in a Minute

Election Returns: Electrifying or Uneventful?

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

While a party or individual in office can shade economic perceptions, they rarely define the direction of the overall market once a new president is in place. A defining feature of the American political system is the strength of its institutions, which have provided enviable stability for nearly two hundred and fifty years. While politics and our candidates are incredibly important for certain policies, the impact that any one individual can have on the overall market is limited. We discuss the election years broadly and what’s happened so far this year in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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The Over/Under on Housing

Tuesday, May 01, 2024

If you’ve bought a house in the past four years, then you know how difficult it has been to navigate the housing market. In 2021, houses in certain parts of the country were sometimes selling for 20-30% over asking price. While the average price for a home has retreated from its peak, prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels and interest rates are at multi-decade highs, making the cost of owning a home more expensive than ever. Over the last two weeks, recent data releases suggest some reprieve, yet challenges still abound. Find out what’s happening in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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History Lessons: Market Performance in Presidential Election Years

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

The US economy continued to show resilience despite elevated inflation and high interest rates, dampening expectations of interest rate cuts. The broad stock market gained more than 10%, its best start to the year since 2019. All but one S&P 500 sector saw positive returns, a sign of healthier levels of market breadth than in 2023. We discuss this and more in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Inflation and the Fed

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced no change to interest rates and threw water on any hopes for a rate cut at its next meeting in May. This more-tempered outlook for interest rates stands in contrast to market expectations in late 2023. In November of last year, after nearly two years of sharply rising interest rates, Fed officials first spoke of rate cuts. In celebration, markets rallied in what became known as the “pivot party.” So why the newfound caution? Find out in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Japan’s Transition Out of the Lost Decades

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

For most of the last 30 years, prices in Japan have grown at a rate below 2%. Then, like many countries around the world, Japan experienced an acceleration in inflation along with Covid-related economic policies. Beginning in 2020, Japan’s core consumer price index, less food and energy prices, began climbing and peaked at 4% in late 2022. Since then, price increases have abated and the latest reading showed 2%, in line with the BoJ’s target.

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Supply Chain Disruptions, Again?

Wednesday, March 06, 2024

Beginning in the early days of Covid, supply chains around the world became snarled, making it difficult to find everything from couches to computer chips for automobiles. While inventory levels of most manufactured goods have since returned to normal levels, some supply chains are threatened anew by geopolitical and environmental stress in key shipping channels such as the Red Sea and the Panama Canal. As the Fed continues to wrestle with inflation, how much impact could these shipping disruptions have on inflation and the global economy? Learn more in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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The Magnificent 7

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Over the course of 2023, seven of the largest stocks in the United States collectively doubled in value, earning the moniker, “The Magnificent 7.” After such impressive performance, what comes next? Read more in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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History Lessons: Market Performance in Presidential Election Years

Wednesday, February 01, 2024

One month into the new year, and one thing’s for certain: The presidential election will continue to grab headlines and grip the nation’s attention for the better part of 2024. How might this impact investors in terms of perceptions and actual market performance? We explore these questions, in the context of historical data, in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Real Estate Pulse Check

Wednesday, November 30, 2023

The recent bankruptcy filing of office-sharing company WeWork provided a stark example of the toll higher interest rates have taken on real estate, one of the most rate-sensitive sectors of the economy. Yet not all areas of this critical sector have performed the same way. Read on for a look at how residential and commercial real estate are faring in today’s higher-rate environment in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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The Impact of Rising Rates

Wednesday, November 9, 2023

Over a year and a half ago, the Federal Reserve began raising the fed funds rate in an effort to slow inflation, which had reached rates not seen in decades. Since then, inflation has subsided substantially, yet interest rates have continued rising. Learn what’s driving those rate increases and possible implications for consumers, businesses, and investors in this week’s

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Q3 Market Review and Outlook 

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

In contrast with Q2, Q3 performance was lackluster across a variety of asset classes. Read this week’s Markets in a Minute for a performance overview in the equity and fixed income markets and areas of potential opportunity in the months to come. 

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How the Israel-Hamas Conflict Might Impact the Markets

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

On Saturday, October 7, 2023, the world witnessed a dramatic turn of events as the militant group Hamas launched a coordinated attack on Israel by air, land, and sea. As of Monday, the toll of this conflict is already devastating, with more than 1,500 lives lost from both sides, and more than 2,200 people being injured, according to health authorities. Our hearts go out to those directly and indirectly affected by this conflict.

Read more in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Will Student Loan Re-Payments Weigh Down the Economy?

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

With the federally mandated pause on student loan repayments expiring this month, borrowers are now responsible for resuming payments on an astonishing $1.7 trillion in outstanding debt. Although one may assume these repayments will negatively affect the economy, several factors could help limit the impact.

Read more in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Labor Market Cooling?

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Recent labor market data has told a somewhat conflicted story. On the one hand, the number of new job listings last month was higher than expected, suggesting more jobs available. On the other, the unemployment rate rose notably from the previous month, suggesting more job seekers were out of work. Is the labor market cooling?

Read more in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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The Impact of Interest Rates on the Economy: How Long and How Variable?

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Today we so often hear central bankers discuss “long and variable lags” in monetary policy that it almost appears cliché.  Despite extraordinarily steep increases in rates over the past eighteen months, the economy hasn’t slowed as one might expect. Just how long and how variable might we expect these lags to be?

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President Election Impacts on the Market

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Though still over a year away, next year’s presidential election is already feeding into news stories and advertisements. Like every previous election, the state of the economy and financial markets will be a hot topic of debate among voters and candidates alike. But how do the markets perform in the year of a Presidential election? How will it impact market performance for the rest of their term?

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Reviewing the Second Quarter, and What’s to Come

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Stocks enjoyed a strong rebound, the S&P rose 17% in the first half of the year, and tech stocks outperformed while the financial and energy sectors lagged. Check out this week’s Markets in a Minute for a quick read on what drove performance this quarter and what’s to come in the second half of the year.

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Fundamentals of Investing: How to Survive and Thrive During Financial Bubbles

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Staying disciplined and sticking to a financial plan during a bubble's upswing can take extraordinary discipline - even Isaac Newton couldn't do it! Read this week's How to Survive and Thrive During Financial Bubbles, part of our Fundamentals of Investing series, to learn how discipline and consistency were rewarded during the previous two bubbles.

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Fundamentals of Investing: More Access Doesn’t Always Equal More Returns

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Despite access to investment platforms and educational resources being easier than ever, many investors are finding themselves more anxious about their financial situations. Learn how to stick with tried-and-true investment principles in this week's Markets in a Minute.

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Debt Ceiling Debacle

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Could this be the first time in history that the U.S. defaults on its payments and challenges Hamilton’s legacy? How does the economic landscape shift if we do default? Let’s find out in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Goldilocks and the Just Right Portfolio

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

In this installment of the “Fables” series, we look to Goldilocks for guidance on how to build the “just right” portfolio for clients. Read more in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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What the Tortoise and the Hare Can Teach Us About Investing

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Although the allure of making money overnight is incredibly hard to resist, in the long run, slow and steady wins the race.  Read more about how time and patience are on investors’ side in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Battle Royale: Is Commercial Real Estate the Next Shoe to Fall?

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

After many years of accelerated growth backed by low-interest rates, easy credit, and competitive lending, commercial real estate has become the latest area of concern for investors. Read more about how unfolding events could impact banks, property values, and individual investors in this week’s Markets in a Minute. 

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Is the Banking System at Risk?

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

On March 10, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporate (FDIC) officially took over Silicon Valley Bank in order to protect depositors, marking a remarkably swift end to a bank that had been in business for four decades. Then on March 12, Signature Bank, based in New York City was also taken over by regulators. Collectively, those banks held over $250 billion in client deposits.

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Battle Royale: The Federal Reserve vs. Inflation

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Inflation is looking stubbornly persistent, and the economy is stronger than expected. How much longer can the Fed stick with its current plan of attack? Read the latest Markets in a Minute for the breakdown on recent inflation stats and outlook.

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Earnings Season

Tuesday, February 7, 2023

With the Federal Reserve slowing its interest rate increases and inflation slowing to a tolerable level, the question remains: what can companies earn in this softer economic environment? Now that we are halfway through companies reporting their earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022, we can affirm that it’s not going great. Read this week's Markets in a Minute to see why that’s actually a good thing. 

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Debt Ceiling 

Wednesday, February 1, 2023 

Here we go again. Democrats and Republicans are locked in a pitched battle over what used to be a fairly routine matter: raising the debt ceiling. Read more to learn about how the debt ceiling works, how previous raises have played out, and what our current situation may mean for the markets in this week’s Markets in a Minute. 

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Turbulence Ahead: Market Review and Outlook

Wednesday, January 18, 2023 

Near-record inflation and both stock and bond market declines in 2022. An inverted yield curve and declining manufacturing activity in early 2023.  How did we get here, where do we go next and, most  importantly - what should investors do?  Learn more in this week’s Markets in a Minute. 

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The Santa Claus Rally

Wednesday, December 14, 2022 

We all know that Santa Claus is real, but what about the Santa Claus Rally? Read more about this mysterious phenomenon and our odds of seeing one this year in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Crypto vs. Back to Basics?

Wednesday, November 30, 2022 

The recent failure of crypto-related business such as FTX has highlighted a void in regulatory oversight in the digital currency world. Read more about why a back to basics approach may serve investors best in our latest Markets in a Minute.

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Inflation, Goldilocks, and the Fed

Wednesday, November 16, 2022 

With lower-than-expected inflation in the month of October, we may all be wondering if there are
brighter economic days ahead. Read more about the impact of inflation and Fed rate increases on the
economy in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Quarterly Review & Outlook

Wednesday, October 19, 2022 

In the third quarter of 2022, the S&P 500’s bear market reached ten months old, the Fed continued to tighten monetary policy as inflation accelerated, and recession predictions fill news headlines. In fact, with stocks down more than 25% and bonds overall down more than 15%, this year will go down, by some measures, as the worst start to the year since 1969. Read the latest Markets in a Minute for more on what brought us here and how investors can navigate the market volatility.

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The R-Word -- Are We in a Recession?

Tuesday, October 04, 2022 

Are we headed toward a recession? The answer is, we’ll get there… eventually. Read on for the “road signs” that can help us estimate when we might arrive and what we can do before we get there.

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Commodities & Housing

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

As the S&P 500’s bear market completes its ninth month, two areas of the economy have experienced rapid changes: commodity price spikes coupled with impending shortages and a housing boom that is quickly petering out. How serious are these risks to the global economy and markets? Let’s discuss in this week’s Markets in a Minute.

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Stock vs. Bond Volatility

Friday, September 02, 2022

With a war in Europe, sky-high energy prices, recession fears, intensifying political divisions, and an on-going global pandemic, it’s no wonder that both stocks and bonds have experienced large gyrations so far this year. In this week’s Markets in a Minute, we discuss what volatility among stocks and bonds means for your portfolio.

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